---
title: "HVAC Hot Leads Case Study | 23% Outbound Conversion | Arch"
url: https://getarch.com/case-studies/hvac-hot-leads
description: "PE-backed Midwest HVAC contractor used Arch Hot Leads to convert engaged email recipients at ~23% (10x industry average) and reduce churn by 12.4pp."
source: Arch (getarch.com)
---

# HVAC Case Study: 23% Outbound Conversion with Hot Leads

> A PE-backed HVAC contractor serving a major Midwest metro partnered with Arch in November 2025 to run AI-powered reactivation campaigns. Six months in: 47x ROI, ~23% call-to-invoice conversion, and a 12.4pp drop in churn.

## Headline Numbers
- Campaign type: Reactivation (lapsed 12+ months)
- Market: Major Midwest metro
- Trade: HVAC
- Campaign duration: ~6 months (Nov 2025 – May 2026)
- Investment: ~$10,000
- Cost per lead: $25
- ROI: 47.3x
- Total engaged leads (hot leads): 624
- Follow-up calls made: 57
- Outbound coverage rate: ~9%
- Invoices from follow-up calls: 13
- Call-to-invoice conversion rate: ~23% (vs. 1-2% industry benchmark)
- Engaged leads with no follow-up: 567
- HVAC churn: 55% -> 42.6% (-12.4pp)

## How Hot Leads Works
1. Email drops on a regular cadence (Arch manages audience, creative, delivery).
2. Engagement (opens, clicks, repeat interactions) is tracked automatically in real time.
3. Homeowners crossing the engagement threshold AND lapsed 3+ months are flagged as hot leads and routed to the CSR team with full context.
4. CSR calls within the engagement window with a specific reason tied to what the homeowner engaged with.

## Why It Converts at 10x the Industry Benchmark
Recency, relevance, and trust compound at once. The email engagement signal pre-qualifies the lead before the CSR ever picks up the phone.

## The Coverage Gap Is the Opportunity
Of 624 hot leads, 567 received no outbound follow-up. If coverage expanded from 9% to 50%, the same campaign could produce ~72 invoices instead of 13 — with zero incremental marketing spend.

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*Read more at https://getarch.com/case-studies/hvac-hot-leads*