# Arch Blog Feed *Last updated: 2026-03-15* This is a simplified text-only feed of the latest blog posts from Arch (getarch.com). For full articles with images, visit: https://getarch.com/blog --- ## Industry Benchmarks Source: Arch Revenue Leakage Index, 2025 ### HVAC Contractors - Median annual customer churn: 36% - 75th percentile churn: 58% ### Plumbing Contractors - Median annual customer churn: 50% - 75th percentile churn: 59% ### What This Means Median = half of contractors perform better, half worse. 75th percentile = only 25% of contractors have higher churn than this threshold. For a free diagnostic comparing your business to these benchmarks, visit https://getarch.com/products/diagnostic --- ## Why 2 Brands Kept Their Customers While 9 Didn't **Date:** 2026-03-12 [Industry Insights] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/retention-automation-churn-study **Summary:** Automated retention workflows reduced HVAC churn by 7pp across a PE-backed portfolio, while 9 brands without automation saw churn climb by nearly 5pp. An 11.9pp spread in four months. *How automated retention workflows reduced HVAC churn by 7 percentage points across a PE-backed home services portfolio, while brands without automation saw churn climb by nearly 5.* Written by Philipp Krinner, CEO & Co-Founder of Arch AI Last Updated: March 2026 HVAC Churn Trajectory — 11 brands under one PE-backed platform, Oct 2025 to Jan 2026 The two brands running automation reduced HVAC churn by an average of 7.0 percentage points. The nine brands without it saw churn increase by an average of 4.9 percentage points. That's an 11.9 percentage point spread in four months, across brands operating inside the same portfolio. ## What the Retention Automation Actually Does This isn't about sending more emails. The brands that lost customers were already marketing to them. The difference is *what* they were marketing and *when*. The two brands that improved were running structured retention sequences that delivered specific value at specific intervals: **Maintenance reminders tied to equipment age and service history.** Not a generic "it's been a while." A message that says "your system was installed in 2017 and hasn't had a tuneup since March" is useful information, not marketing noise. **Membership benefit reminders before renewal.** Most members forget what they're paying for by month 8. The top-performing brands in this study reminded members of unused benefits, upcoming seasonal checkups, and priority scheduling status throughout the year — not just at renewal time. **Seasonal preparation checklists.** Practical content: "here are 3 things to check before your first heating day" or "your filter is due for replacement based on your last service date." These emails get opened because they help the homeowner, not because they have a coupon. **Equipment-specific safety and efficiency tips.** Personalized to the actual system in the home, based on technician notes and service history. A customer with a 12-year-old heat pump gets different content than one with a 3-year-old furnace. The pattern is consistent: every touchpoint creates value for the homeowner. Nothing in the sequence asks for a sale. The sale happens because the customer trusts the company when something does break. ## Why the Other 9 Brands Lost Ground The nine brands without automation were not ignoring their customers. Most were running seasonal campaigns, holiday promotions, or periodic email blasts. Standard marketing. The problem is that standard marketing treats every customer the same. A customer approaching their 13th month gets the same message as one who just had service last week. Without automation tied to customer data, there's no mechanism to intervene at the right moment with the right message. The intent is there. The system isn't. ## Process Enforcement, Not Marketing Brilliance The brands that succeeded didn't have better marketers. They had better process enforcement. Automation meant that every customer received the right sequence at the right time, regardless of whether someone on the marketing team remembered to send it. It ran in the background, continuously, across every customer in the database. The brands that fell behind were relying on manual campaign planning, seasonal pushes, and team bandwidth. When bandwidth shrank, outreach stopped. When outreach stopped, customers left. At portfolio scale, this compounds fast. A 10-location platform with 10,000 active customers per location losing an additional 4.9 percentage points per year is roughly 490 more customers walking out the door, every year, at each location. That's 4,900 customers across the platform. ## How This Compares to Industry Benchmarks For context: our [Q4 2025 study across 85+ home services companies](/blog/2025-churn-benchmarks-hvac) found that best-in-class operators churn just 7% of customers annually. The industry average sits at 40%. The 11.9 percentage point spread observed in this portfolio study is consistent with that broader benchmark data: the gap between companies that systematize retention and those that don't is large, measurable, and persistent. Similarly, [74% of home services memberships cancel at first renewal](/blog/month-13-cliff-membership-retention). The brands in this study that delivered continuous value between service visits avoided that cliff. The ones running standard annual renewal campaigns did not. ## The EBITDA Impact for PE-Backed Platforms For PE-backed platforms managing multiple brands, customer churn is not a marketing problem. It's an EBITDA problem. Every customer lost must be replaced through acquisition, at roughly [13x the cost of retaining an existing one](/blog/2025-churn-benchmarks-hvac). A portfolio of 10 brands each losing an incremental 5 percentage points of customers annually represents millions in eroded recurring revenue and millions more in replacement acquisition spend. The fix is not more marketing budget. It's systematic value delivery: the right message, to the right customer, at the right time, running automatically across every brand in the portfolio. ## The Takeaway Customers don't leave because they had a bad experience. Most leave because they had *no* experience. The gap between their last service visit and their next need was filled by a competitor who showed up with something useful at the right time. The two brands that held their customers didn't do anything revolutionary. They systematized value delivery. Maintenance reminders, benefit recaps, seasonal prep, equipment-specific guidance. Useful content, personalized to the customer, delivered automatically. The nine that didn't saw churn climb every month. The data doesn't leave much room for interpretation. Retention at scale requires automation. Not because automation is clever, but because humans can't remember to reach 50,000 customers at the right moment with the right message. Systems can. ## Frequently Asked Questions ### What is a good customer retention rate for home services companies? Based on Arch's Q4 2025 study of 85+ home services companies, best-in-class operators retain approximately 93% of customers annually (7% churn rate). The industry average is significantly lower, with approximately 40% annual churn. The gap represents substantial revenue impact, particularly for multi-brand platforms. ### How does automated retention compare to manual marketing campaigns? In this study, brands running automated retention workflows reduced churn by 7 percentage points over four months. Brands running standard manual campaigns (seasonal promotions, periodic email blasts) saw churn increase by 4.9 percentage points over the same period. The key difference is that automation delivers personalized, data-driven outreach continuously, while manual campaigns depend on team bandwidth and tend to treat all customers the same. ### What does effective HVAC customer retention automation include? The most effective retention programs in this study included four elements: maintenance reminders tied to actual equipment age and service history, membership benefit reminders delivered throughout the year (not just at renewal), seasonal preparation checklists personalized to the customer's system, and equipment-specific safety and efficiency tips based on technician notes. ### How much does customer churn cost a PE-backed home services platform? Customer acquisition costs approximately 13x more than customer retention. For a 10-location brand with 5,000 active customers, each additional percentage point of churn represents roughly 50 lost customers per year. Across a portfolio of multiple brands, incremental churn translates to millions in lost recurring revenue and increased acquisition spend. ### How does Arch AI help home services companies reduce churn? Arch connects to ServiceTitan in view-only mode and analyzes customer data to identify churn risk, membership retention gaps, and revenue opportunities. The platform automates personalized retention outreach across email and direct mail, and provides holdout-tested attribution to prove incremental ROI. [Learn more about how Arch connects to ServiceTitan](/blog/arch-servicetitan-integration). *Arch AI helps home services companies drive organic growth through retention diagnostics, automated outreach, and AI-powered lead discovery. The platform integrates with ServiceTitan and is used by PE-backed platforms and large independents across the US. [Learn more at getarch.com](/)* *Further reading:* - *[The Month-13 Cliff: Why Memberships Collapse at Renewal →](/blog/month-13-cliff-membership-retention)* - *[The Hidden Signal in Home Sales That 90% of HVAC Marketers Miss →](/blog/home-sale-hvac-timing-signal)* - *[Your Emails Are Already Generating Leads. You're Just Not Calling Them. →](/blog/email-hot-lead-automation)* - *[Q4 2025 Customer Churn Benchmarks for Home Services →](/blog/2025-churn-benchmarks-hvac)* --- ## How Arch Connects to ServiceTitan: 5 Minutes to Smarter Retention and Lead Discovery **Date:** 2026-03-06 [Product] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/arch-servicetitan-integration **Summary:** Learn how Arch connects to ServiceTitan in 5 minutes to automate customer retention, discover high-intent leads, and prove marketing ROI for HVAC, plumbing, and electrical contractors. *Written by Philipp Krinner, CEO & Co-Founder of Arch AI* *Last Updated: March 2026* If you're running an HVAC, plumbing, or electrical company on ServiceTitan, you already have a goldmine of customer data sitting in your account. Job history, revenue per customer, call records, membership status. The problem is that none of it is working for you proactively. Arch changes that. One integration, five minutes, no disruption to your existing workflows. Here's exactly how it works. ## What the Integration Does Arch connects to your ServiceTitan account through the ServiceTitan marketplace in view-only mode. That means Arch can read your data but never modifies, overwrites, or writes anything back unless you specifically request it. What Arch reads: customer records, job history, revenue data, service timelines, call logs, and membership information. Essentially a full 360-degree view of every customer relationship in your system. Setup takes about five minutes per tenant. There's no software to install on your machines, no workflow changes for your team, and no downtime. Your dispatchers, techs, and CSRs won't notice a thing. ## What Happens After You Connect The integration is the starting line, not the finish line. Here's what Arch does with your data once it's connected. ### Step 1: Your Customer Data Gets Enriched ServiceTitan tells Arch who your customers are and what work you've done for them. Arch layers in data that ServiceTitan doesn't have: real estate transactions, property demographics, and financial signals. A customer record that used to be "Jane Smith, last serviced June 2024, $3,200 lifetime value" becomes a complete profile. Arch now knows if Jane recently sold her home (a major churn trigger), whether the house has an aging system based on permit history, and what her neighborhood's replacement patterns look like. This enrichment is what makes everything downstream possible. ### Step 2: AI Builds a Prediction Model for Your Business Arch doesn't use a generic, one-size-fits-all algorithm. It trains a bespoke AI prediction model on your specific data: your customers, your service history, your geography, your pricing patterns. The model identifies three things: - Which existing customers are at risk of churning (and why) - Which customers have upsell or cross-sell opportunities hiding in their service history - Which prospects in your territory look most like your best customers This is a model built for your business, not the industry average. ### Step 3: Retention and Lead Discovery Run Automatically Once the model is trained, Arch acts on what it finds. At-risk customers get re-engaged before they leave. The system detects early churn signals, reads technician notes, and triggers the right offer at the right time through email, direct mail, or digital channels. For new customer acquisition, Arch's AI analyzes permits, property data, and market signals to surface prospects who are actually ready to buy. Not just anyone in your zip code. Campaigns deploy automatically. You get the output of a marketing team without the headcount. ### Step 4: You See Exactly What's Working Every campaign Arch runs includes built-in holdout groups, matchback tracking, and full attribution across every touchpoint: calls, emails, QR codes, and direct mail responses. You'll know which campaign generated revenue and which didn't. No guesswork, no vanity metrics. Just clear data on what moved the needle. ## Security and Data Protection Your ServiceTitan data is sensitive. Arch treats it that way. Arch operates in view-only mode. Your data is encrypted at rest and in transit. Infrastructure runs on AWS. Access is controlled through role-based permissions, and only authorized personnel who need access to deliver the service can view customer data. Arch will permanently delete your data from its systems upon request. Authentication is handled through secure, server-side sessions with CSRF protection. No tokens are stored in the browser or exposed in client code. ## Why This Matters for Your Business Our Q4 2025 study of 85+ home services companies found a massive spread in customer retention: the best operators churn just 7% of customers annually. The average sits at 40%. That gap represents real revenue walking out the door every month. Here's the other number that matters: it costs 13x more to acquire a new customer than to reactivate an existing one. Most contractors pour money into lead generation while their existing customer base quietly erodes. The Arch integration with ServiceTitan is the mechanism that flips this equation. It turns the data you already have into a system that retains customers, finds new ones, and proves what's working, all without adding headcount or changing how your team operates day to day. ## Frequently Asked Questions **How long does the Arch and ServiceTitan integration take to set up?** About five minutes per tenant. Arch connects through the ServiceTitan marketplace, and there's no software to install or workflow changes required for your team. **Does Arch write data back to ServiceTitan?** No. Arch operates in view-only mode by default. It reads your customer data but does not modify or write anything back to your ServiceTitan account unless you specifically request it. **What data does Arch access from ServiceTitan?** Arch reads customer records, job history, revenue data, service timelines, call logs, and membership information. This gives Arch a complete picture of each customer relationship, which it then enriches with external real estate, demographic, and financial data. **Is my ServiceTitan data secure with Arch?** Yes. Data is encrypted at rest and in transit. Arch runs on AWS, uses role-based access controls, and will permanently delete your data upon request. **Do I need to change anything in my ServiceTitan workflow?** Nothing. The integration is invisible to your dispatchers, technicians, and CSRs. Arch works alongside ServiceTitan without touching your existing processes. *Arch AI is a software platform that helps HVAC, plumbing, and electrical contractors drive organic growth without adding headcount. Arch connects to ServiceTitan to diagnose customer retention gaps, automate retention workflows, and discover high-intent leads in your territory. [Learn more about Arch](https://www.getarch.com) or [book a walkthrough](https://www.getarch.com) to see what Arch finds in your ServiceTitan data. Setup takes about five minutes.* --- ## Your Emails Are Already Generating Leads. You're Just Not Calling Them. **Date:** 2026-03-04 [Industry Insights] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/email-hot-lead-automation **Summary:** How one workflow change took outbound conversion from ~1% to 4.8% by turning email engagement signals into prioritized CSR call lists. Every home services company sends marketing emails. Tune-up reminders. Membership renewals. Reactivation campaigns. Most track the basics: open rates, click-throughs, maybe unsubscribes. The numbers go into a dashboard. Someone glances at them during a weekly meeting. And what happens next? Nothing. They get another email in 30 days. Meanwhile, the homeowner who opened your maintenance email three times this week calls a competitor who showed up on Google the following Tuesday. ## The Problem: Outbound Is Broken The way most contractors run outbound calling hasn't changed in years. A CSR gets a list sorted by last service date or membership status and starts dialing. Everyone on that list gets the same priority. The CSR has no idea who's warm and who's ice cold. The result: **outbound conversion hovers around 1%.** One booked job for every hundred calls. CSRs burn out. Managers question whether outbound is worth the labor cost. Some shops abandon it entirely and pour everything into paid acquisition instead. That's a mistake. The data to fix outbound is already sitting in their email platform. They're just not using it. ## The Insight: It's Not About Knowing. It's About Doing. Here's the thing: most marketing leaders already understand that email engagement signals intent. That's not new. The problem is operational, not conceptual. Marketing teams are managing campaigns across multiple brands, juggling seasonal pushes, coordinating with dispatch, keeping up with membership renewals. They don't have the bandwidth to pull engagement reports daily, cross-reference them against customer history, and hand-deliver a prioritized call list to the CSR team before the window closes. So the data sits. And the leads go cold. **The companies pulling ahead aren't the ones with the best insight. They're the ones who built a process to act on it, every single day, without relying on someone remembering to do it.** ## How Hot Lead Automation Works The concept is simple. Sustaining it is what separates the best from the rest. **1. Email goes out.** A retention or reactivation email hits a segment of existing customers. Standard marketing, nothing unusual. **2. Engagement is monitored in real time.** Not just "did they open it," but behavioral patterns: multiple opens, click-throughs on specific offers, engagement across consecutive campaigns. **3. Hot Leads are flagged automatically.** When a customer crosses the engagement threshold, the system flags them instantly. No one has to pull a report. No one has to eyeball a dashboard. **4. The right CSR gets notified immediately.** Through Dialpad, internal chat, or whatever tool the shop uses. **5. The CSR calls within 24 hours.** Not with a generic script, but with context: which email the customer engaged with, what service it referenced, what their history looks like. The homeowner picks up a call from a company they were literally just thinking about. It feels like attentive service, not a sales pitch. ## The Numbers **Without Hot Lead signals:** ~1% outbound conversion. **With Hot Lead automation:** 4.8%. That's not a marginal improvement. It's a fundamentally different motion. For context: email-to-sale conversion in home services runs below 0.5%. HVAC marketing campaigns convert at roughly 3% across all channels combined. A 4.8% outbound conversion from email-engaged existing customers outperforms most paid acquisition channels. And these are customers already in the database. Zero acquisition cost. ### What That Looks Like in Practice Say your CSRs make 200 outbound calls a month from a standard list. At 1%, that's 2 booked jobs. With Hot Lead prioritization on the same call volume: roughly 10. At an average residential service ticket around $2,000, that's the difference between $4,000 and $20,000 in monthly revenue from the same team, making the same number of calls. It compounds. Every month, ongoing email campaigns surface new Hot Leads. The pipeline never dries up because the signal is continuous. ## Why 4.8%? Three Things Happening at Once **Recency.** The homeowner just engaged with your email. Your company is top of mind. A well-timed call meets them in that window instead of hoping they act on their own. **Relevance.** The CSR knows which email the customer opened. Tune-up offer? The call is about scheduling a tune-up. Membership renewal? The call is about their membership. Specificity converts. **Trust.** This is an existing customer. They've had your technicians in their home. An outbound call from a company they already trust feels entirely different from a cold call. This is also why AI answering services, as useful as they are for inbound, don't replace this workflow. The value is in the *outbound* motion: a human CSR reaching out to a warm homeowner with relevant context at the right moment. ## The Bigger Picture: Your Existing Customers Are Your Best Growth Lever Hot Lead automation is one piece of a broader shift happening across home services. The best operators are realizing that their existing customer base is their most valuable, and most neglected, growth lever. Our Q4 2025 study across 85+ home services companies found a massive spread: **best-in-class operators churn just 7% annually. The average: 40%.** That means the average contractor replaces nearly half their customer base every year, at roughly 13x the cost of keeping those customers active. The companies closing that gap aren't doing it with bigger ad budgets. They're doing it with better signals and faster action: diagnosing where customers leave, automating proactive outreach, and using data like email engagement and home sale patterns to intervene at the right moment. Hot Lead automation fits squarely in that framework. It takes data that already exists and converts it into revenue that would otherwise walk out the door. ## Try It This Week. Then Decide If You Need to Automate. You can test this concept manually. Pull your email engagement data from the last 30 days. Find the customers who opened or clicked multiple times. Have your best CSR call 20 of them with a simple message: *"I noticed you might be thinking about [service]. Wanted to see if we could get something on the books for you."* Track the conversion rate against your normal outbound list. The difference will be obvious. The challenge isn't proving it works. It's sustaining it. Pulling engagement lists manually, cross-referencing against customer history, routing the right leads to the right CSR, doing it daily so you catch homeowners while they're still warm: that's where most teams stall. The first week goes great. By week three, someone's busy, the list doesn't get pulled, and you're back to calling cold. That's the problem we built Arch to solve. The platform monitors email engagement continuously, flags Hot Leads the moment they cross the threshold, and routes them to your CSR team automatically. No daily list pulls. No leads aging out in a spreadsheet. Just a steady stream of warm outbound calls, every day, without anyone having to remember to make it happen. For contractors who want to see Hot Lead automation in action, we're happy to walk you through it. [Schedule 15 minutes here.](https://calendly.com/arch_phil/introduction-to-arch) Whether you build this workflow internally or use a platform to automate it, the core insight is the same: your emails are already generating leads. The question is whether anyone's picking up the phone. *Arch AI helps home services companies drive organic growth through retention diagnostics, automated outreach, and AI-powered lead discovery. The platform integrates with ServiceTitan and is used by PE-backed platforms and large independents across the US. [Learn more at getarch.com](https://getarch.com)* *Further reading: [Q4 2025 Customer Churn Benchmarks for Home Services →](/blog/q4-2025-customer-churn-benchmarks)* --- ## Product Update: February 2026 **Date:** 2026-02-25 [Product Updates] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/product-update-february-2026 **Summary:** Executive dashboard, installed equipment data, and email sending configurations—more clarity, control, and precision for your campaigns. Another week, another product update 🚀 We have been moving fast, and this release is all about **clarity, control, and precision**—giving you better visibility into performance and more leverage in how you engage customers. Here's what's new on the platform! ## 📊 Executive Dashboard Your Arch homepage is now an executive-ready performance dashboard. Instead of landing on individual workflows, you're greeted with a high-level view of how Arch is driving results across your business—designed for executive visibility. ### What you'll see - Revenue and matchbacks across campaigns and sequences - Clear customer insights, business health metrics and sequence performance - Overview of revenue trends, revenue composition, and memberships ### Why this matters - Faster answers to "what's working and what's not" - Easier internal and executive reporting - More confidence in where to double down—and where to pull back This dashboard is built to track value and ROI, not just display activity. We would love your feedback as we continue to work on more visibility features. [View the Executive Dashboard →](https://app.getarch.com/dashboard) ## 🔧 Installed Equipment Data Reach high-value customers based on what's actually in their home, with high signal data. Arch can now leverage installed equipment data to: - Identify aging systems - Trigger timely maintenance reminders - Promote replacement or upgrade offers at the right moment ### Why this matters Instead of broad, seasonal blasts, you can now run lifecycle-driven campaigns that align with real homeowner needs—improving relevance, response rates, and conversion. You can find it under **Audiences → + New Audience → ServiceTitan Data** [Create an Equipment-Based Audience →](https://app.getarch.com/audiences/new) ## ✉️ Email Sending Configurations More control. Better timing. Higher engagement. You can now: - Set custom pre-headers to improve open rates - Schedule sends based on when customers are most likely to engage ### Why this matters Small delivery details compound. Better timing and clearer context at the inbox level typically lead to higher engagement and stronger downstream performance—without changing your core message. You can find it under **Sequences → Edit Step** (on email creative) As always, thank you for the feedback that continues to shape Arch. More signal, more automation, and fewer manual decisions—that's where we're headed. *Best, The Arch Team* --- ## Email Deliverability Audit: Marketing Pro Email **Date:** 2026-02-12 [Research] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/email-deliverability-audit **Summary:** Independent analysis reveals shared-domain architecture and D+ deliverability grade for contractors paying $1,000–$3,000/month. --- ## The Retention Gap: Q4 2025 Churn Benchmarks for Home Services **Date:** 2026-02-10 [research] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/2025-churn-benchmarks-hvac **Summary:** We measured annual customer churn rates across 85+ home services companies. The results reveal a massive gap between best-in-class operators and the industry average. We measured annual customer churn rates across 85+ home services companies nationwide. The goal: establish the first industry-wide benchmark so operators can see where they actually stand. The results were striking. ## By the numbers - **Best-in-class:** 7% annual churn - **Industry average:** 40% - **Worst performers:** 81% - **Cost gap:** Acquiring a new customer costs roughly 13x more than keeping an existing one Customer Churn Rate Distribution across 85+ home services companies ## Why it matters The average contractor is replacing nearly half of their customer base every single year. That's not growth. That's a treadmill. About half of the companies in our study fall above the 40% average line. These operators are spending aggressively on new customer acquisition while their existing customers quietly walk out the back door. The other half figured out something important. ## What the top performers do differently It's not a secret. It's a sequence. **Step 1: Diagnose retention gaps.** Know which customers are at risk, why they're leaving, and how much revenue is walking out the door. **Step 2: Act on it.** Proactive outreach, targeted reactivation, service reminders timed to when customers are most likely to churn. **Step 3: Only then, invest heavily in new customer acquisition.** This order matters because customer acquisition costs across the trades are rising fast. Pouring marketing dollars into a leaky bucket doesn't scale. A retained customer base compounds. They buy more services over time, refer their neighbors, and cost a fraction to maintain. ## The math, simplified Two companies. Same starting point. Very different outcomes. | | Company A | Company B | Customers | 10,000 | 10,000 | Annual churn | 40% | 15% | Customers lost per year | 4,000 | 1,500 | Customers to replace | 4,000 | 1,500 | Relative acquisition cost | $$$$ | $$ Now multiply that gap over three years. Company B isn't just saving on acquisition. It's building a fundamentally more valuable business, because retained customers keep buying, keep referring, and keep compounding. ## The bottom line Most home services operators don't measure churn at all. They track new leads, new bookings, and revenue. But they rarely ask the most important question: how many of last year's customers came back this year? That single number is the starting point. If churn is high: stop the bleeding before investing another dollar in growth. If churn is low: that's your signal to expand aggressively, because the foundation is solid. Either way, the first step is knowing where you stand. Want to see how your operation compares? We offer a complimentary benchmarking analysis for home services platforms and large independents. [Request your benchmark →](/products/diagnostic) --- ## The Hidden Signal in Home Sales **Date:** 2026-02-03 [Insights] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/home-sale-hvac-timing-signal **Summary:** Analysis of 6,617 HVAC permits reveals a predictable replacement spike around home sales—but timing varies dramatically by region. Here's how CMOs can turn this insight into a competitive edge. *Written by Philipp Krinner, CEO & Co-Founder of Arch AI* *Last Updated: March 2026* We analyzed 6,617 HVAC permits. The pattern we found isn't just interesting. It's a tactical weapon for any home services CMO willing to use it. Permit timing distribution: HVAC installations spike sharply within 3 months of a home sale. ## The 3-Month Window Nobody's Talking About Here's the headline: HVAC replacements spike within 3 months of a home sale. That's not speculation. It's permit data. But here's where it gets interesting. **The timing of those replacements shifts dramatically by region.** - **San Mateo County:** Installations spike *after* closing - **Virginia:** Activity peaks *before* the listing goes live This isn't a curiosity. It's a competitive moat waiting to be dug. Marketing teams that align with local sale patterns capture high-value jobs ahead of competitors. Those who overlook this data? They're showing up to the party after everyone's gone home. ## A Tale of Two Markets: Why the Split? Three forces drive whether your market behaves like San Mateo (post-sale) or Virginia (pre-sale): ### 1. Market Norms & Buyer Expectations In high-priced Bay Area markets, buyers budget for post-sale upgrades. It's part of the purchase plan. In many Virginia counties, sellers invest upfront to make listings turnkey. Different buyer psychology, different timing windows. ### 2. The Home Warranty Effect Virginia sellers often purchase one-year warranties that *exclude* pre-existing HVAC issues. That's a strong nudge to replace before listing. In California, buyers commonly receive broad "2-10" warranties covering failures after closing, making post-sale upgrades the path of least resistance. ### 3. Regulations & Disclosure Rules Virginia's disclosure requirements force sellers to note HVAC defects, creating another incentive to replace early. San Mateo's strict permit-closure process, meanwhile, makes post-sale renovations more straightforward for new owners. ## The CMO Playbook: Turning Data Into Dollars ### Step 1: Mine Sale Records **Entry level:** Pull weekly deed transfers or MLS "just sold" data to flag new owners (San Mateo-style) and "coming soon" listings (Virginia-style). **Advanced:** [Platforms like Arch AI automate](/products/growth-engine) this analysis, detecting post- vs. pre-sale trends across markets and layering in additional signals: equipment age, permit history, local climate patterns, and homeowner behavior. The platform continuously monitors these signals and automatically flags high-conversion opportunities in each territory. ### Step 2: Adjust Cadence by Region | Market Type | Timing Strategy | **Post-Sale (San Mateo-style)** | Send "new-home comfort check" within 30 days of closing. Follow up with tune-up offers at 6 and 12 months. | **Pre-Sale (Virginia-style)** | Target homes listed 3-12 months with ads stressing: "Boost resale value. Avoid inspection headaches now." ### Step 3: Partner Smartly - **Realtors & escrow agents:** Provide concise HVAC health reports sellers can attach to listings - **Home-warranty brokers:** Bundle discounted post-sale upgrades with warranty sign-ups ### Step 4: Message Ethically Avoid phrases that reveal private data ("We saw you just bought…"). A better approach: "Settling into a new place? A system check could cut energy use by up to 20%." ### Step 5: Measure the Lift Track response rates versus untimed campaigns. Field data consistently shows higher conversion when outreach aligns with the local sale window. If you're not measuring incrementality, you're flying blind. ## The Bottom Line for CMOs Home-sale timing is one of the most powerful, and most overlooked, signals in HVAC marketing. But the signal isn't universal. It's local. The CMOs who win will: - **Determine their market type:** Does your territory behave like San Mateo or Virginia? - **Align campaign cadence accordingly:** 30 days post-close vs. 3-12 months pre-listing - **Layer additional signals:** Equipment age, climate triggers, financing eligibility The data is there. The patterns are clear. The only question is whether you'll use them before your competitors do. --- ## Pacific Heating & Cooling: 11x ROI in 36 Days **Date:** 2026-02-02 [Case Study] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/pacific-heating-cooling-case-study **Summary:** How Pacific HVAC generated ~$138,000 revenue from a ~$12,000 direct mail investment in 36 days using AI-powered audience targeting. Pacific Heating & Cooling faced a challenge familiar to many HVAC contractors: a limited marketing budget and pressure to demonstrate measurable results. While Google Ads provided steady leads, Marketing Director Katherine Lundin questioned whether passive, intent-based marketing captured all available opportunity. The team partnered with Arch to run a controlled test using AI-powered audience selection and a holdout group to measure true incrementality. ## The Challenge Three key questions drove the experiment: - **Proactive vs. Passive:** Does proactive outreach drive incremental action, or do customers only respond when actively searching? - **Budget Optimization:** How to maximize return on investment when budget constraints require selective targeting? - **Attribution Clarity:** Can attribution be proven beyond last-touch metrics that may over-credit passive channels? ## The Solution ### Step 1: Audience Selection Arch's AI analyzed Pacific's entire service territory: - Total addressable market: 93,609 single family homes - AI-generated customer profile identified 40,000-50,000 matching homes - Proprietary AI scoring narrowed to 30,000 highest-propensity targets - 25,000 selected for direct mail campaign - 5,000 randomly sampled as holdout group (no outreach) ### Step 2: Campaign Execution The platform handled all campaign execution: design, printing, shipping, and delivery. Campaign details: - **Format:** Direct mail postcard - **Offer:** $179 HVAC tune-up - **Investment:** $12,188 for 24,834 pieces - **Launch Date:** September 4, 2025 ### Step 3: Attribution Tracking Multiple attribution methods provided comprehensive visibility: - Direct attribution via campaign phone number and QR code scans - Matchback attribution using address-based tracking - Time-to-action measurement from delivery date - Complete journey tracking from appointment through close ## Results 36-day performance comparison between matched audiences: | Metric | Holdout | Campaign | Revenue | ~$3K | ~$138K | Jobs Sold | 2 | 15 | Avg Ticket | $1.5K | $9.2K ### Key Findings **1. Targeting Precision** AI scoring identified prospects with high purchase intent, not just demographic fit. The campaign group closed 15 jobs while the matched holdout group closed only 2. More significantly, the average ticket size was more than 6x larger ($9,200 vs $1,500), indicating the campaign reached customers ready for larger system investments. **2. Incrementality Proof** The holdout group, identical in quality but receiving no outreach, generated only ~$3,000 from 2 jobs. The campaign group delivered ~$138,000 from 15 jobs. This 46x difference demonstrates the campaign created substantial incremental revenue rather than capturing existing demand. **3. End-to-End Execution** The platform handled the entire campaign lifecycle: audience selection, creative design, printing, shipping, tracking, and attribution. This eliminated operational complexity and enabled precise measurement. ## The Bottom Line Pacific Heating & Cooling achieved approximately 11x ROI on their direct mail investment, with 6x higher average ticket sizes compared to their holdout group. "Google Ads worked until it didn't. Every additional dollar produced diminishing returns. Arch's Proprietary AI Score analyzed 93,609 homes to identify propensity signals that precede search behavior. We reached qualified prospects outside the Google ecosystem at a fraction of the cost, and the platform's end-to-end execution made tracking seamless and precise." — Katherine Lundin, Marketing Director, Pacific Heating & Cooling [Read the full case study →](https://getarch.com/case-study) --- ## The 10x Playbook: Why One Home Services Company Calls Every Email Opener **Date:** 2026-01-28 [Strategy] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/call-email-openers-home-services **Summary:** Learn why calling email openers within 5 minutes converts 10x better than cold outreach, and how to actually make it happen. One of our customers uses a simple follow-up system: send an email, then have their CSR team call customers the moment they open it. The tactic sounds basic. But the data explains why it works. ## Warm Calls vs. Cold Calls: What the Research Shows When you call someone who opened your email, you're making a warm call, not a cold call. The conversion difference is significant. According to [Cleverly](https://www.cleverly.co/), a B2B sales agency that analyzed over 1 million cold calls, cold calls convert at approximately 2-3% into qualified opportunities. By contrast, their research on warm calling shows warm calls convert at roughly 20%, about 10x higher than cold outreach. [Superhuman Prospecting](https://www.superhumanprospecting.com/), an outsourced SDR firm, reports similar findings: warm calls with strong prior engagement convert at 10-20% into qualified stages, compared to low single digits for cold outreach. The email open is the signal. It indicates the recipient saw your company name, read your subject line, and chose to engage. That prior touchpoint changes the nature of the call. ## Speed Matters: The 5-Minute Window Here's where it gets interesting. [ZoomInfo's research](https://www.zoominfo.com/) shows that following up with leads within 5 minutes makes you 9x more likely to engage with them. Think about it: when someone opens your email, they're thinking about you right now. They might be sitting at their kitchen table, wondering if it's time to finally get that AC checked. Five minutes later, they've moved on. An hour later, they've forgotten. The data on persistence reinforces this: - 80% of successful sales require five or more follow-up touches ([Source](https://www.hubspot.com/)) - 93% of leads that eventually convert are contacted on the sixth attempt or later ([Source](https://www.hubspot.com/)) - Yet 44% of sales representatives stop trying after just one unsuccessful attempt ([Source](https://www.hubspot.com/)) For home services specifically, phone calls remain a high-value channel. A 2025 Call Conversion Industry Benchmarks Report analyzing over 60 million calls found that 37% of phone leads in home services convert during the call itself. ([Source](https://www.invoca.com/)) ## The Problem: Doing This Manually Is Nearly Impossible The math doesn't work. To call someone within 5 minutes of an email open, you'd need to: - Send your campaign through an email platform with open tracking - Monitor your dashboard continuously for new opens - Cross-reference each open against ServiceTitan to pull the customer's phone number and history - Hand that info to a CSR who's available to call immediately Even with a dedicated person watching the screen, you're looking at 10-15 minutes minimum per lead. By then, the window has closed. Most teams give up and batch their calls weekly or monthly instead. It's practical, but you lose the speed advantage that makes warm calling so effective. ## How Arch Makes This Seamless Arch was built to close that gap. When you send a campaign through Arch, the platform tracks opens in real-time and automatically notifies your CSR team the moment a customer engages. Notifications go wherever your team already works: email, text message, or directly inside ServiceTitan. Your CSR gets a ping with the customer's name, phone number, service history, and equipment details. Everything they need to make a warm call in under 30 seconds. No dashboard monitoring. No manual lookups. No delays. Your marketing team sends the campaign. Your CSRs get instant alerts. Calls happen while customers are still thinking about you. [Learn how Arch integrates with ServiceTitan →](/products/growth-engine) ## Key Takeaways | Metric | Data Point | Source | Cold call conversion rate | 2-3% | Cleverly | Warm call conversion rate | 10-20% | Superhuman Prospecting | Leads contacted within 5 min | 9x more likely to engage | ZoomInfo | Deals requiring 5+ touches | 80% | HubSpot via FreJun | Home services phone lead conversion | 37% | Invoca ## Frequently Asked Questions **What is warm calling in home services?** Warm calling means contacting a customer who has already engaged with your business, such as opening an email or requesting an estimate. These calls convert at significantly higher rates than cold outreach because the customer already recognizes your company. **How soon should I call after someone opens my email?** Research shows following up within 5 minutes makes you 9x more likely to engage. The challenge is operationalizing that speed, which typically requires automation. **Why do warm calls convert better than cold calls?** When a customer opens your email, they've already seen your company name and chosen to engage. That prior touchpoint builds familiarity, making them more receptive when you call. *Arch helps home services companies identify retention gaps, automate follow-up workflows, and discover high-intent customers. The platform integrates directly with ServiceTitan.* --- ## Product Update: January 2026 **Date:** 2026-01-27 [Product Updates] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/product-update-january-2026 **Summary:** January 2026: A/B testing for direct mail, budget forecasting tools, and enhanced analytics for home services marketing. Hello all, It's time for another product update — the Arch engineering team has been on fire lately 🔥. We've been shipping fast, taking your feedback seriously, and pushing Arch further toward what it's built to be: **a more automated, more intelligent revenue engine**. We have several exciting updates to share. ### 💸 Budget Management (How fun was 2026 budgeting?) This is a big one! You can now define **monthly budgets at the sequence level**, and Arch will intelligently allocate spend based on performance. Instead of manually guessing where dollars should go, Arch continuously shifts budget toward the audiences and sequences driving the most value. **Why this matters** - More visibility on how much you're spending on each sequence - Less manual micromanagement and checking - Faster reaction to what's actually working This is the foundation for more autonomous optimization coming soon. You can view the feature here under the **Sequences → Audiences** tab: [https://app.getarch.com/sequences/](https://app.getarch.com/sequences/) ### 🧪 Built-in A/B Testing (Early Access) **What it is** You can now run **controlled A/B tests directly inside Arch** to test and improve your Copy/Design/Offers. We split **eligible audiences** into two groups, run two different creatives, messaging and offers with them, and compare downstream outcomes. **Why this matters** - Test and learn which offers and messaging are driving *incremental* revenue - Personalize offers based on audience - Learn faster which audiences, messages, and sequences actually move the needle We don't just look at revenue. We track **appointments, estimates, jobs and average job value** as leading indicators — critical for high-ticket services where revenue can be lumpy. Reach out to us in case you want help to set this up. ### 📫 Direct Mail Flexibility (For the deal-seeker in you) **What it is** At Arch, we don't make money on postcards. We pass through direct mail costs directly from the provider: - $0.49 per postcard (standard mail) - $0.56 per postcard (first-class mail) We now have a general vendor interface. Should you ever get a cheaper price, reach out and we will set up with them. This gives you the flexibility to **use the direct mail vendor of your choice** and secure the best pricing. **Why it matters** - Keep direct mail costs predictable and transparent as volume scales - Maintain flexibility to negotiate better rates or use preferred vendors You can view the feature under **Settings → Direct Mail tab:** [https://app.getarch.com/settings/direct-mail](https://app.getarch.com/settings/direct-mail) ### 🖼️ Creative Templates **What it is** We know that creating and managing email designs is often the longest part of launching a campaign. We heard you and made it easier by simplifying the creatives process. **Why it matters** You can now: - Reuse winning designs and templates - Start from proven templates instead of a blank canvas - Cut creation time dramatically (with autosave protection built in) This is just the beginning — we're cooking up something even more powerful here 👀 ### What's cooking Here's a preview of what we're actively building toward - you should see the feature live in the upcoming weeks: - Visibility, visibility and more visibility… - AI-powered revenue insights… - New channels… As always, thank you for the feedback that continues to shape Arch. More automation, more intelligence, and fewer manual decisions — that's the direction we're heading. — Best, **The Arch Team** --- ## The Only Way to Know What Your Direct Mail Actually Moved **Date:** 2026-01-27 [Marketing] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/holdout-groups-direct-mail-roi **Summary:** QR codes and call tracking under-attribute. Matchback can over-attribute. Holdout testing tells you which story you're living. Your matchback report says the spring tune-up campaign drove $2.16M in revenue. Your CFO asks: "How much of that would have come in anyway?" You don't have a good answer. That's because matchback attribution tells you who received mail and later booked a job. It doesn't tell you whether the mail *caused* them to call. For contractors running maintenance reminders or win-back campaigns, this distinction is everything. ## The Attribution Problem: Under and Over **Direct tracking under-attributes.** QR codes and dedicated call tracking numbers only capture 20-35% of direct mail responses. The rest? Customers who saw your postcard, stuck it on the fridge, and called your main line three weeks later when the AC quit. If you only looked at tracked responses, you'd massively undercount your campaign's reach. **Matchback over-attributes.** Matchback fixes the under-counting problem by matching your ServiceTitan data back to your mail file. Now you can see everyone who received mail and later booked a job, not just the ones who used the QR code. But here's the catch: matchback can't distinguish between customers who called *because of* the mail versus customers who *would have called anyway*. Your maintenance agreement customers were probably going to book their spring tune-up regardless. Your matchback report credits the mailer for revenue that was coming no matter what. So while direct tracking under-counts, matchback over-counts. Neither tells you the true story. ## The Holdout Test: Finding the Truth A holdout group is a small slice of your audience (5-10%) that you intentionally don't mail. They're your control group. They tell you what would have happened without the mailer. After 60-90 days, compare revenue between the two groups. Here's what that looks like for an HVAC platform running a win-back campaign to 100,000 lapsed customers: | Metric | Mailed Group | Holdout Group | Customers | 90,000 | 10,000 | Jobs Booked | 675 | 20 | Total Revenue | $6,210,000 | $30,000 | Avg Ticket | $9,200 | $1,500 The holdout group generated just $3.00 per customer without any mailer. That's your baseline: minimal organic demand from this lapsed segment. Here's where the three attribution methods diverge: | Method | What It Shows | Revenue Attributed | Direct tracking (QR + call) | Only tracked responses | ~$1,900,000 (under-counts) | Matchback | Everyone who got mail and booked | $6,210,000 (needs validation) | Holdout-adjusted | True incremental lift | $5,940,000 (the real answer) **Your true incremental lift:** $66.00 per customer × 90,000 = $5,940,000. In this case, the holdout validates that the campaign drove almost all of the revenue. Only $270,000 (extrapolated baseline) would have come in anyway. The matchback was directionally accurate, not inflated. *A note on sample size:* A 10,000-person holdout gives you strong directional insight, and statistical confidence improves with larger lists or by aggregating results across multiple campaign cycles. ## Why This Matters for Home Services Platforms The holdout can tell two very different stories depending on your audience. **Win-back and conquest campaigns** often show dramatic lift like the example above. Lapsed customers weren't going to call on their own. The campaign actually moved them. Matchback gets validated. **Maintenance reminders to active customers** often tell the opposite story. These customers were probably going to book their spring tune-up regardless. Matchback over-attributes because it can't separate caused from coincidental. Without a holdout, you don't know which story you're living. You might be under-investing in campaigns that actually work, or over-spending on customers who don't need the nudge. ## What You'll Learn The real power comes from comparing holdout performance by segment: | Segment | Mailed Response | Holdout Response | True Lift | Active maintenance agreement | 12% | 11% | ~9% (low) | Last service 1-2 years ago | 4% | 0.5% | ~8x (high) | Lapsed 3+ years | 0.8% | 0.2% | ~4x (moderate) This tells you where your marketing dollars actually work: **Maintenance agreement customers** are already loyal. Matchback shows 12% response, but holdout reveals they were going to call anyway. Reduce frequency or skip them entirely. **1-2 year inactive customers** show dramatic incremental lift. The mailer actually moved them. Double down here with stronger offers or earlier timing. **Lapsed 3+ years** respond poorly in absolute terms, but the mailer still drives meaningful lift over baseline. Test smaller batches before scaling. ## Making It Operational The best approach uses all three layers: direct tracking captures immediate response, matchback recovers the full picture, and holdout testing reveals true incremental lift. But running holdout tests requires discipline: clean data, consistent execution, and tracking who was held out and why. Most platforms don't have the bandwidth to manage this manually alongside day-to-day operations. Purpose-built software can automate the heavy lifting. At Arch, holdout measurement is built into every campaign. Contractors see true incremental revenue alongside matchback results, not instead of them, and the system continuously learns which segments need the nudge and which don't. **Want to see your true incremental lift?** Arch combines matchback attribution with automatic holdout testing on every campaign, so you get the full picture: what your marketing reached and what it actually moved. [ See how it works → ](/products/growth-engine) **Sources:** [Direct Mail Attribution – Franklin Madison](https://franklinmadison.com/resources/direct-mail-attribution/) [5 Direct Mail Attribution Strategies – Sharpdots](https://sharpdots.com/5-direct-mail-attribution-strategies/) [Measured – Incrementality Research](https://www.measured.com/) --- ## Multi-Channel HVAC Marketing: Lower CAC, Higher Close Rates, Predictable Growth **Date:** 2026-01-22 [Insights] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/multi-channel-hvac-marketing **Summary:** Multi-channel HVAC marketing combines direct mail, email, SEO, and paid search to drive higher close rates, lower CAC, and more predictable revenue for home services companies. We analyzed performance data from 50+ high-performing HVAC contractors, including PE-backed multi-location platforms, and the conclusion is unambiguous: Multi-channel HVAC marketing — combining direct mail, email marketing, SEO, and paid search — doesn't just generate more leads but compounds the value of every marketing dollar spent. Over-reliance on Google Local Services Ads (LSAs), HVAC PPC, or word-of-mouth referrals creates artificial revenue plateaus. When one channel softens, growth stalls. Margins compress. CAC spikes. ## Why Single-Channel HVAC Marketing Creates Revenue Plateaus Most HVAC platforms start with a single dominant acquisition channel: - Google LSAs - Paid Search (PPC) - Referrals / word-of-mouth A lot of contractors think that this works, until it doesn't and growth starts to stall. ### Single-Channel vs. Multi-Channel HVAC Growth - Channels run in silos - No shared attribution or sequencing - Mail, email, and search don't reinforce each other - Sales teams treat every lead as "cold" For large HVAC platforms, which are focused on predictable growth and valuation multiples, this is a liability. ## HVAC Lead Generation in Multi-Channel Marketing HVAC lead generation improves when direct mail, email, SEO, and paid search work together to warm homeowners before urgency-driven searches occur. ### The "73% Rule": How Homeowners Actually Choose HVAC Providers Our data shows that 73% of homeowners interact with two or more touchpoints before booking an HVAC service call. A typical journey looks like: - Getting a postcard in the neighborhood (offline) - Searching for "AC repair near me" on Google (search) - Receiving an email that reminds you of the tune-up they've been pushing out (online) ### What this means for HVAC lead generation - If you only exist on one channel, you miss most buyers - Presence across offline, PPC, social, and email builds brand recall - In home services, brand recognition often wins at the moment of need Data insight: Nearly 90% of homeowners choose a known brand when urgency is high — not the cheapest option. ## How Direct Mail and Email Increase HVAC Close Rates (The Halo Effect) Our data shows that homeowners who receive: - A direct mail piece - Followed by email reminders - Then encounter the brand again online Convert at materially higher rates. ### What changes in the homeowner's mind - The brand feels familiar and established - The technician is perceived as an authority - Price sensitivity drops Repeated exposure via direct mail and email reduces perceived risk at the point of sale, which is why close rates and average ticket sizes increase. Result: Contractors using Direct Mail + Email alongside digital channels saw: - 15–22% higher average ticket sizes - Higher close rates on replacements - Less reliance on discounts and promos ## What a High-Performing Multi-Channel HVAC Stack Actually Looks Like A high-performing HVAC marketing stack does two things simultaneously: - Creates demand before urgency hits - Captures demand instantly when urgency arrives Most stacks only do #2. That's the mistake. ### The Core Channels (And Their Jobs) | Channel | Primary Role | What It Does Well | Where It Fails Alone | Direct Mail | Demand Creation | Puts your brand in the home before breakdowns | No immediate intent signal | Email | Reactivation & Nurture | Converts past customers at near-zero CAC | Needs prior trust | SEO | Credibility Layer | Validates legitimacy at moment of search | Slow, competitive | PPC / LSAs | Demand Capture | Captures high-intent, urgent jobs | Expensive, auction-driven ## HVAC Marketing Customer Acquisition Costs: Why Direct Mail and Email Beat Search Long-Term Search channels like PPC and LSAs (including Google Local Services Ads) are: - Fast - Competitive - Increasingly expensive Owned channels scale differently. | Channel Strategy | Cost Stability | Reactivation Power | Long-Term ROI | SEO + PPC Only | Medium | Low | Linear | Direct Mail + Email | High | Very High | Compounding | Multi-Channel (All) | Highest | Maximum | Exponential Direct Mail and Email: - Lower blended CAC - Increase utilization during shoulder seasons - Smooth revenue volatility across the year This is why sophisticated operators keep doubling down on them. ## How Arch Powers Multi-Channel HVAC Platforms The hardest part of Direct Mail and Email isn't sending messages. It's connecting those touches to real revenue outcomes. Arch enables platforms to: - Track responses across mail, email, and digital - Standardize how warmed-up leads are sold in-home - Turn reactivated customers into higher-ticket jobs This is what allows Direct Mail and Email to function as core growth channels, not legacy tactics. [Refer to the HVAC direct mail and email case study with Pacific Heating and Cooling.](/case-study) **TL;DR: HVAC companies that combine direct mail and email with digital channels close more jobs, increase ticket size, and reduce reliance on paid search. This is exactly the problem we built Arch to solve.** [Request a Demo Now](https://www.notion.so/getarch/2bfe5ce00b6481bca910f96725814962) ## Frequently Asked Questions ### Is SEO still important in a multi-channel HVAC marketing strategy? Yes — but SEO should support credibility and demand capture, not carry growth alone. ### Why does direct mail still work for HVAC marketing? Because HVAC is local, trust-based, and seasonal. Physical mail cuts through digital noise and reaches homeowners before emergencies occur. ### Does email marketing work for HVAC and home services companies? Yes. Email is one of the highest-ROI channels for reactivating past HVAC customers and driving repeat and replacement work. In case you have any other questions, reach out to us [here](https://www.notion.so/getarch/2bfe5ce00b6481bca910f96725814962). --- ## The Month-13 Cliff: Why Memberships Collapse at Renewal **Date:** 2026-01-14 [Industry Research] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/month-13-cliff-membership-retention **Summary:** Industry data reveals 74% of home services memberships cancel at first renewal. Here's why the cliff happens and how top performers retain 55%+. Most home services companies don't track membership retention by cohort. If they did, they'd see a pattern that's costing them millions in recurring revenue. We analyzed membership retention data across home services companies. The pattern is consistent: retention holds steady through month 12, then falls off a cliff at month 13. The numbers are stark. **Industry average retention drops to 26% at the 13-month mark.** That means nearly three out of four members disappear at their first renewal. 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% M1 M4 M7 M10 M12 M13 26% Membership Retention by Month Industry average: 74% of members cancel at first renewal ## Why the Cliff Happens The cliff isn't random. It's structural. Annual memberships create a single, high-stakes renewal decision. At month 12, customers receive a renewal notice. They see the full annual price. And for the first time in a year, they ask themselves: "Did I actually use this? Do I need it?" For most home services memberships, the answer is "I'm not sure." The HVAC tune-up happened eight months ago. Nothing broke. The membership feels like insurance they never claimed. So they cancel. ## What Top Performers Do Differently The data shows a clear separation between average performers and the top 25%. While average companies retain 26% at month 13, **top performers retain 55% or more**. Three patterns emerge from the top performers: **1. Monthly billing, not annual.** Monthly memberships eliminate the cliff entirely. There's no single renewal decision point. The small monthly charge flies under the radar, and customers never face the "do I need this?" moment. Our data shows monthly billing retains around 70% at the same mark where annual billing retains 26%. **2. Continuous value delivery.** Top performers don't wait for the annual tune-up to demonstrate value. They send seasonal tips, maintenance reminders, and energy-saving recommendations throughout the year. When renewal comes, the membership feels active, not dormant. **3. Proactive renewal outreach.** Rather than sending a renewal invoice and hoping for the best, top performers start the renewal conversation at month 10. They remind customers of the services they've received, the money they've saved, and the priority status they'll lose if they cancel. ## The EBITDA Impact For PE-backed platforms, this isn't just a retention metric. It's an EBITDA problem. A 10-location platform with 1,000 members per location and a $200 annual membership fee generates $2M in membership revenue. If retention drops from 70% to 26% at year one, that's **$880,000 in lost recurring revenue**, every year, compounding. The fix isn't more marketing spend. It's fixing the billing structure and renewal experience. ## What to Do Next If you're not tracking membership retention by cohort, start. The cliff might be hiding in your data. If you are tracking it and see the pattern, the fix is straightforward: shift to monthly billing, deliver value continuously, and treat renewal as a conversation, not an invoice. Want to see how your retention compares? Arch's Diagnostic analyzes your ServiceTitan data to identify membership retention gaps, churn patterns, and revenue opportunities hiding in your customer base. Get Your Benchmark Report --- ## The Impact of Wage Inflation on the HVAC Industry **Date:** 2024-08-30 [blog-post] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/the-impact-of-wage-inflation-on-the-hvac-industry **Summary:** Wage inflation is a significant challenge for the HVAC industry, driven by labor shortages and increasing demand for skilled technicians, resulting in rising wages. To manage these costs without sacrificing service quality or profitability, HVAC businesses must adopt strategic planning and innovative solutions, focusing on operational efficiency and employee productivity. ### Introduction Wage inflation is a significant challenge for the HVAC industry, with wages increasing at a rate faster than GDP and market growth. This trend is putting pressure on profit margins and operational efficiency, making it crucial for businesses to adapt. For HVAC contractors, managing wage inflation requires strategic planning and innovative solutions[1][2]. ### Understanding Wage Inflation In the past year, wages for HVAC-related roles have increased by approximately 9.5%, averaging $23.15 per hour. This rise is driven by labor shortages and the increasing demand for skilled technicians. As wages continue to climb, businesses must find ways to offset these costs without sacrificing service quality or profitability[1][2]. The industry is experiencing wage increases at a rate faster than GDP and market growth. Across HVAC-related roles, wages have increased by approximately 9.5% in the past year, and roles are averaging a wage of $23.15 per hour, which is a $4.05 increase from 2019, or an increase of approximately 17%[1]. This wage inflation highlights the importance of improving operational efficiency and finding new ways to enhance employee productivity[3]. ### Strategies to Manage Wage Inflation To manage the impact of wage inflation, HVAC businesses need to focus on improving operational efficiency and exploring new growth avenues. This includes: - **Investing in Employee Training**: Well-trained employees are more efficient and productive. - **Adopting Advanced Technologies**: Implementing technologies such as AI and automation can reduce labor costs and improve efficiency. - **Enhancing Customer Service**: Providing exceptional customer service can lead to repeat business and referrals, offsetting increased costs. Implementing energy-efficient technologies and offering maintenance packages can also help retain customers and generate steady revenue streams. Furthermore, leveraging data analytics to understand customer behavior and preferences can guide targeted marketing efforts and improve service offerings[3]. ### Applications for Contractors For contractors, wage inflation presents a need to enhance operational efficiency and improve employee retention. This can be achieved by: - **Adopting AI Tools**: Automate routine tasks to free up time for high-value activities. - **Offering Competitive Benefits**: Attract and retain top talent by offering benefits that go beyond salary. - **Creating a Supportive Work Environment**: Foster a positive workplace culture to improve employee satisfaction and productivity. By focusing on these areas, contractors can mitigate the impact of wage inflation and continue to deliver high-quality service to their clients[1][3]. Additionally, contractors can explore flexible staffing models, such as hiring part-time or seasonal workers, to manage labor costs more effectively during peak and off-peak periods. ### Future Outlook Wage inflation is likely to continue as demand for skilled HVAC technicians remains high. Contractors who proactively address this challenge by enhancing efficiency and investing in their workforce will be better positioned to succeed. Embracing technology and prioritizing employee satisfaction will be critical in maintaining competitiveness in the HVAC industry[1][3]. ### Conclusion Wage inflation is a complex challenge, but with the right strategies, HVAC businesses can mitigate its impact. By focusing on efficiency and employee development, companies can maintain profitability and continue to grow. For contractors, this means adopting innovative solutions and creating a work environment that attracts and retains top talent[1][3]. ### References - Consulting Report by EY-Parthenon - [RSI - HVAC Technician Shortage Could Mean Career Opportunities](https://www.rsi.edu/blog/hvacr/why-the-hvac-technician-shortage-could-mean-career-opportunities/) - [Peak Business Valuation - Valuation Multiples for HVAC Companies](https://peakbusinessvaluation.com/valuation-multiples-for-hvac-companies/) --- ## Arch has a plan to help HVAC contractors install more heat pumps **Date:** 2024-03-01 [in-the-news] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/arch-has-a-plan-to-help-hvac-contractors-install-more-heat-pumps **Summary:** How AI-powered marketing helps HVAC contractors capture the growing heat pump market and maximize clean energy opportunities. --- ## Product Update Mid July **Date:** 2025-07-21 [product-updates] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/product-update-mid-july **Summary:** Product Update: dynamic audiences and better home data It's been a few weeks since our last update. Since then, we've welcomed two new engineers—Matt and Jono—to the Arch team! With your feedback, we're rapidly building features to make Arch more automated and intelligent. We have some EXCITING updates. ### **🎯 Dynamic Audiences - No More Manual Updates** We're excited to roll out a powerful new feature designed to save you hours each week and help you market smarter. Your audiences now **update automatically** based on the filters you define — no more exporting, cleaning, or manually refreshing lists. Just set your criteria once and let the system keep your audiences up to date. Highly recommend you try it out. Click "New Audience" and choose Dynamic. **LINK.** New Dynamic Audience Selection Dynamic Filter for Dormant CustomersWith Dynamic Audiences, you can: - Automatically follow up after specific job types to capture repeat business. - Re-engage dormant customers who are about to call your competitor. - Target homeowners who are most likely to upgrade their HVAC system — right when they're ready. **💡 Pro tip: Homeowners who recently bought their home are 5–11x more likely to need HVAC work within 3 months of purchase.** Dynamic Audiences make it easy to stay in front of them at the perfect time. The chart below highlights just how sharply HVAC needs increase after a home sale. [CLICK HERE](https://calendar.app.google/W3MqWK4btuqPQqmi6) to schedule a setup call with me. Huge Spike in HVAC Permits After Home Sales### **🏠 Better Home Data with Zillow** We've unlocked a major upgrade — you now have access to **Zillow's full dataset**. Get real-time home values and the latest information on recently sold homes right in your service area. Use these insights to build **highly targeted audiences** and reach homeowners at the exact moment they're most likely to need your services. More Home Characteristics!You now have **up-to-date market data on every home in your area — built right into Arch. Don't leave this opportunity on the table and try it out today. ****Link to Audiences.** **🐛 Key Bug Fixes & Improvements** - **Fixed:** Map drawing issues with polygon selection for geographic audiences ## Coming Soon - **Multi-touch sequences:** send a series of postcards (+ emails) to the same audience while reusing creatives - **Better targeting signals:** homes without AC units and owner-occupied properties. - **Improved customer profiles:** using Zillow data to enhance your customer profiles. - **Email existing customers:** send emails to your existing customers (in two weeks!) 📧 If you want to see any of these features in action, just reply or [schedule time with me here.](https://calendar.app.google/W3MqWK4btuqPQqmi6) Best, Jimmy (on behalf of Arch team) --- ## The Newest AI Tool For HVAC Contractors | Arch **Date:** 2025-04-24 [product-updates] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/the-newest-ai-tool-for-hvac-contractors-arch **Summary:** A weekly product newsletter for HVAC contractors interested in learning about AI data science and marketing software Welcome to Arch's newest newsletter series! We know it's been a while and in case you've forgotten about us, we wanted to give you an exciting update on what we've been building recently. Our AI software is a co-pilot built just for residential HVAC marketing experts. Arch takes the customer data you already have, finds nearby homes most likely to need new systems, and lets you launch targeted direct-mail or digital campaigns in minutes. Here are some newly released features from the Arch team this past month. If you'd like to book a demo use **this link.** #### Released Features: - Control every creative decision on campaigns with our in app editor. It's like a free Canva! - Use AI tools to create the best target lists for existing and new customers - Understand the performance of each business unit and report to your team with our no-code analytics - Plan for seasonality and peak demand with a tool that let's you see historical company job volumes and revenues week by week - Gain a better understanding of your customer base with enriched data such as demographics, home data and permit data - Automate your mail campaigns, which print and ship in just 2 days We'll keep you updated as we continue to build new and exciting features to help contractors achieve better marketing ROIs. If your not on our platform yet and you'd like a demo of our product, please book a session with our team with **this link.** Thanks! --- ## Background Processing @ Arch - An Engineer's Journal **Date:** 2025-05-13 [engineering-insights] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/background-processing-arch---an-engineers-journal **Summary:** A newsletter from the engineers and developers at Arch to help other engineers navigate interesting challenges ## **The Inevitable Need for Background Jobs** Background jobs... You can put them off for a while, but they seem to always find a home in a maturing codebase. Without them, scheduled, or slow running operations at the API layer quickly hit a scale wall, and these types of operations also just generally promote bad UX patterns. ## So what are some ways to approach this? There are pleeeenty of tools out there, varying from the raw DIY building block of messaging queues, serverless compute, schedulers, to full-fledged SaaS services offering an opinionated, out-of-the-box job processing experience. We found it a bit of a challenge to sort through these, recognizing that while we could DIY something purpose-built to our immediate needs, our time would likely not be well spent stitching things together. We also recognized that a highly structured job processing tool could require refactoring into a more brittle approach and potentially lock us into a solution.**Key Learnings** ### **1. Embrace the API Layer at the MVP/Prototype Stage** Embrace the API layer at the MVP/prototype stage. This is where you learn the details of what you need, where the bottlenecks are, etc. You probably do not need background jobs processing immediately; embrace the wait spinner! - Some features we determined we needed from a background jobs tool at this stage:- triggered jobs (async, pollable, batches) - parent/child relationships for nested jobs - scheduled jobs (cron) - queue + configurable retries etc. - the task/configuration code lives in our codebase (this is really big for dev ops) - github actions integration for prod deployment - vercel integration - Local server for dev - can be self hosted - typescript - dashboard, task level debugging, and logs/tracing - slack/email alerts - versioning - db integration - hosted option with auto scaling - pricing based on worker runtime ### **2. Filter Options by Reading Documentation** Filter options by reading documentation, search for features you know you will need and make sure the contracts and approaches to those features make sense for your project. ### **3. Build Extreme MVPs** Build extreme MVPs using those features on promising solutions. It is important to build these out comprehensively across the feature set. We found several tools with the features we needed on paper, like a resumable step-based architecture, that had serious timeout issues with our Vercel backend. ### **4. Ask Questions Early** Use available support channels early. This gives a good sense of responsiveness and community engagement. ### **5. Think Through Team Workflows** - Can multiple developers work on the same job at the same time? - Will runs in development or staging branches overlap?- Some tools have a great dev environment that struggle in staging/production due to having multiple branches pointing to the same backend. Others only have a hosted dev environment, which requires a network connection, and can be an annoying extra step/configuration especially across a development team. ### **6. Understand Deployment Thoroughly** Really understand deployment. The existence of a "Production" tab in the docs is not enough! Understand how development, staging (multiple branches?), and production environments are configured. Then actually integrate it, even at a small scale. It is really painful to figure out a blocker with some aspect of your deploy pipeline after doing all the above work. Ask us how we know! ### **7. Evaluate Versioning and Backwards Compatibility** Versioning, how does this work in the tool? Are there ways to maintain backwards compatibility? Do you have any long-running processes that can be impacted by a new deployment? Think through what happens when you deploy a new version, and how this impacts different parts of your running application. ## **Our Decision: Why We Chose Inngest** After running through the above with a few different options, our team settled on Inngest, which has been a great experience so far and checks all our boxes. Great docs, responsive support, and active community, and provides an excellent development experience. It is easy to deploy in multiple staging branches and production, and has great visibility into metrics and logs at the service, job, and task levels. It has all the features we need, and has made background jobs a consistent and comfortable part of our codebase. Knowing we can easily spin up a new job for something long-running has also made it easier for us to build a smooth UX, as we can push slower processes (even just 2-3 seconds) to a background job and keep our front end snappy. ## Key Takeaways - Start with API layer implementation before moving to background jobs - this helps identify actual requirements and bottlenecks - Essential features needed: triggered jobs, job relationships, scheduling, configurable queues, and integration with development tools - Thoroughly test potential solutions with comprehensive MVPs across the full feature set - Consider development ecosystem factors like multi-developer support and branch management - Carefully evaluate deployment processes and versioning support across all environments - Inngest emerged as the chosen solution, due to strong documentation, support, and development experience, while meeting all required features --- ## Embracing Sustainable Heating and Cooling Technologies in 2024 **Date:** 2024-08-09 [blog-post] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/embracing-sustainable-heating-and-cooling-technologies-in-2024 **Summary:** The HVAC industry is experiencing a major shift towards sustainable heating and cooling technologies due to increased consumer awareness, government incentives, and technological advancements. This trend presents both challenges and opportunities for HVAC contractors to attract eco-conscious customers, benefit from government programs, and stay ahead by offering the latest sustainable solutions. ### Introduction In the past year, the HVAC industry has undergone a significant green transformation, with sustainable heating and cooling technologies leading the way. This ongoing shift is driven by rising consumer awareness, government incentives, and technological advancements that make sustainable options more viable. For HVAC contractors, this trend offers both challenges and opportunities to enhance services and appeal to eco-conscious customers. ### The Rise of Heat Pumps Heat pumps are skyrocketing in popularity, with global sales showing double-digit growth. In the US, sales are increasing at over 10% annually[1]. This boom is fueled by the adoption of sustainable heating methods and enticing rebates. Heat pumps offer a greener alternative by using less energy and reducing greenhouse gas emissions[1]. Government initiatives, such as California's mandate for zero-emission heaters by 2030 and programs like NYS Clean Heat, are making heat pumps more accessible and affordable[2][3]. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), air-to-air heat pump sales are growing at an annual rate of 11% in the US, and even higher rates in Europe, such as 49%[1]. This trend is expected to continue as governments focus more on sustainability goals. For instance, California has voted for all space and water heaters sold in the state to have no emissions by 2030[2]. Heat pumps are now seen as one of the most sustainable and affordable options, thanks to widespread rebate programs[3]. ### Applications for Contractors Contractors can greatly benefit from the rise of sustainable technologies. By offering the latest heat pump technology, contractors can attract environmentally conscious customers and leverage government incentives. Staying ahead of the curve and becoming knowledgeable about these technologies positions contractors as industry leaders. Additionally, understanding and promoting the benefits of rebates, like those from NYS Clean Heat, can make these technologies more appealing to consumers, driving business growth. Moreover, contractors can diversify their services to include: - **Energy Audits and Consultations**: Helping homeowners make informed decisions about sustainable upgrades builds trust and opens new revenue streams. - **Training for Technicians**: Investing in training for technicians to install and maintain these systems effectively is crucial for long-term success. - **Exclusive Promotions and Warranties**: Partnering with manufacturers to offer exclusive promotions and warranties enhances the value proposition for customers. Expanding their knowledge of sustainable technologies also allows contractors to provide better recommendations and solutions tailored to individual customer needs. This can lead to increased customer satisfaction and loyalty, as clients feel confident that they are making environmentally friendly choices. Furthermore, staying updated on industry trends and innovations ensures that contractors can offer the most advanced and efficient solutions available, setting them apart from competitors. ### Benefits of Sustainable Technologies Sustainable technologies offer numerous benefits, including reduced energy consumption, lower carbon emissions, and long-term cost savings. These technologies not only help the environment but also provide financial benefits to consumers and businesses alike. Heat pumps, known for their efficiency, can significantly lower energy bills over time, enhancing market competitiveness for adopters[1]. For instance, homeowners who switch to heat pumps can see a reduction of up to 30% in their heating bills compared to traditional systems. Businesses that adopt these technologies can also benefit from tax incentives and rebates, further improving their return on investment. Additionally, sustainable technologies contribute to reducing a company's carbon footprint, which can enhance its reputation and appeal to eco-conscious customers[1][3]. In the long run, adopting these technologies can also future-proof businesses against regulatory changes and increasing energy costs. ### Future Outlook The trend towards sustainable heating and cooling is set to continue, driven by consumer demand and government policies. HVAC businesses that embrace these changes will not only contribute to a greener planet but also position themselves as leaders in an evolving market. Investing in training and staying updated on the latest advancements will ensure contractors are ready to meet growing demand[1]. As more consumers become aware of the environmental impact of their choices, the demand for sustainable solutions will likely increase. HVAC companies that invest in sustainable technologies now will be better positioned to meet this demand and benefit from the growing market. Furthermore, advancements in technology will continue to improve the efficiency and affordability of these systems, making them more accessible to a broader audience[1][3]. The ongoing innovation in the field promises even greater energy savings and operational benefits for both residential and commercial users. ### Conclusion The HVAC industry is at a pivotal moment with sustainability becoming increasingly important. Embracing sustainable technologies allows contractors to enhance their services, attract new customers, and contribute to a healthier planet. By adopting these innovations, HVAC businesses can not only improve their bottom line but also play a crucial role in combating climate change. Now is the time for contractors to act and lead the charge towards a sustainable future. ### References - [IEA - Global heat pump sales continue double-digit growth](https://www.iea.org/commentaries/global-heat-pump-sales-continue-double-digit-growth) - [NPR - California plans to phase out new gas heaters by 2030](https://www.npr.org/2022/09/23/1124511549/california-plans-to-phase-out-new-gas-heaters-by-2030) - [NYS Clean Heat](https://documents.dps.ny.gov/public/Common/ViewDoc.aspx?DocRefId=%7B315D85D9-3E3B-43D8-BFCB-2DA89144FE94%7D) --- ## Germans Have Seen the Future, and It's a Heat Pump **Date:** 2022-12-02 [in-the-news] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/germans-have-seen-the-future-and-its-a-heat-pump --- ## Heat pumps are now mandatory in new homes in Washington State **Date:** 2022-11-09 [in-the-news] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/heat-pumps-are-now-mandatory-in-new-homes-in-washington-state --- ## How AI is Revolutionizing the HVAC Industry **Date:** 2024-08-16 [blog-post] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/how-ai-is-revolutionizing-the-hvac-industry **Summary:** AI is transforming the HVAC industry by automating tasks, increasing efficiency, and driving growth. This technology helps HVAC businesses stay competitive and enhances customer service and profitability. ### Introduction Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming industries worldwide, and the HVAC sector is no exception. AI tools are automating tasks, increasing efficiency, and driving growth, making it essential for HVAC businesses to embrace this technology to stay competitive. For contractors, AI offers a unique opportunity to streamline operations, enhance customer service, and boost profitability[1]. ### The Power of AI in HVAC AI's ability to handle large datasets and perform tasks with high accuracy makes it a valuable asset in the HVAC industry. From automating routine tasks to optimizing energy usage, AI enhances productivity and operational efficiency. AI-powered tools can predict maintenance needs, optimize energy consumption, and even assist in designing HVAC systems tailored to specific building requirements[3]. A study by PwC estimates that AI can improve productivity by 40% by 2035, showcasing the significant impact this technology can have on operational efficiency[2]. Additionally, 62% of consumers are willing to share their data with AI to enhance their experience, a trend that the HVAC industry can capitalize on to improve customer satisfaction and engagement[3]. The HVAC industry has seen slower adoption of AI compared to other industries, but this is expected to change rapidly[3]. ### Real-World Applications In 2024, AI is being utilized in more innovative ways within the HVAC industry. For instance, some companies are using AI to optimize HVAC systems in real-time, adjusting settings based on usage patterns and weather forecasts to maximize efficiency. Additionally, AI-driven predictive maintenance tools are more accurate than ever, reducing unexpected breakdowns and extending the lifespan of HVAC systems. These advancements not only improve operational efficiency but also significantly enhance customer satisfaction by providing more reliable service[3]. Companies implementing AI are already seeing significant benefits. AI tools can analyze home patterns, generate system designs, and complete rebate paperwork quickly and accurately, freeing up time for HVAC professionals to focus on more critical tasks. Improved sales conversion rates and customer engagement are among the notable outcomes. For instance, AI can automate emails, calls, and even paperwork, saving both time and money for businesses[1][3]. AI-powered tools like predictive maintenance can identify potential system failures before they occur, reducing downtime and costly repairs. This proactive approach not only improves efficiency but also extends the lifespan of HVAC systems. Moreover, AI-driven analytics can provide insights into energy usage patterns, helping businesses and homeowners optimize their energy consumption and reduce costs[3][1]. Additionally, AI can automate repetitive tasks, allowing sales teams to focus more on strategic activities that drive growth[3]. ### Applications for Contractors For contractors, AI presents an opportunity to streamline operations and improve service delivery. By leveraging AI tools, contractors can: - **Reduce Administrative Tasks**: AI can handle repetitive tasks such as scheduling appointments, generating quotes, and following up with customers, freeing up time for more critical activities. - **Enhance Customer Interactions**: AI-driven insights can help personalize customer interactions, improving satisfaction and loyalty. - **Increase Overall Productivity**: By automating routine tasks, AI allows contractors to focus on strategic initiatives and high-value tasks. - **Predict Service Needs**: AI can analyze data to predict when maintenance or repairs are needed, reducing downtime and improving customer satisfaction[1][3]. - **Providing More Accurate and Competitive Quotes**: Enhancing contractors' ability to win new business. - **Differentiating from Competitors**: Offering a higher level of service and differentiation of quotes for homeowners through the integration of AI. - **Training Staff**: Maximizing the benefits of AI by ensuring seamless implementation of advanced tools, this can help new techs to get up and running faster - **Workforce Management**: Predicting labor needs based on upcoming projects and maintenance schedules, thus improving efficiency and reducing costs Adopting AI can also provide contractors with valuable insights into customer preferences and behaviors, allowing them to tailor their services and marketing efforts more effectively. This data-driven approach can lead to higher customer satisfaction and loyalty, as well as increased sales. By staying ahead of technological advancements, contractors can continuously improve their service offerings and maintain a competitive edge in the market. ### Future Outlook The adoption of AI in the HVAC industry is still in its early stages, but its potential is enormous. As AI technology continues to evolve, it will become an integral part of HVAC operations, driving innovation and efficiency. Contractors who embrace AI now will be well-positioned to lead the industry in the future[3]. AI is expected to continue to evolve, offering even more sophisticated solutions for the HVAC industry. Future advancements may include AI-driven diagnostic tools that can remotely monitor systems and provide real-time updates to contractors. Embracing these innovations will be key for HVAC businesses to stay competitive and meet the growing demands of their customers[3]. ### Conclusion The rise of AI presents a tremendous opportunity for the HVAC industry. Businesses that leverage AI will gain a competitive edge, streamline operations, and deliver superior customer experiences. For contractors, AI is not just a tool but a transformative force that can revolutionize the way they work. ### References - [PwC - Artificial intelligence study](https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/data-and-analytics/publications/artificial-intelligence-study.html) - [Salesforce - State of the Connected Customer Report](https://www.salesforce.com/news/stories/state-of-the-connected-customer-report-outlines-changing-standards-for-customer-engagement/) - [IBM - The AI Ladder](https://www.ibm.com/downloads/cas/GVAGA3JP) --- ## Leveraging AI to Boost HVAC Sales and Efficiency **Date:** 2024-09-13 [blog-post] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/leveraging-ai-to-boost-hvac-sales-and-efficiency **Summary:** Leveraging AI in the HVAC industry can significantly boost sales and efficiency, helping businesses stand out in a competitive market. AI tools streamline operations, enhance customer interactions, and increase profitability by automating routine tasks and providing valuable insights into customer preferences. ### Introduction The HVAC industry is increasingly competitive, and businesses need to find ways to stand out. Leveraging AI to boost sales and efficiency is a powerful strategy that can lead to significant improvements in productivity and customer satisfaction. For HVAC contractors, AI presents an opportunity to streamline operations, enhance customer interactions, and increase profitability[1][3]. ### AI and Sales Efficiency AI's ability to handle large datasets and perform tasks with high accuracy makes it a valuable asset in sales. AI can automate routine sales tasks such as generating quotes, scheduling appointments, and following up with customers. This allows sales teams to focus on selling and building relationships with clients. AI tools can also analyze customer data to identify patterns and preferences, enabling more personalized and effective sales strategies[1][3]. A study by PwC estimates that AI can improve productivity by 40% by 2035, showcasing the significant impact this technology can have on operational efficiency[2]. Additionally, 62% of consumers are willing to share their data with AI to enhance their experience, a trend that the HVAC industry can capitalize on to improve customer satisfaction and engagement[3]. Moreover, AI can automate repetitive tasks, allowing sales teams to focus more on strategic activities that drive growth[3]. ### Real-World Applications In 2024, AI applications in the HVAC industry have expanded even further. Companies are now using AI-powered virtual assistants to handle customer inquiries and schedule maintenance appointments, reducing the workload on human staff and improving response times. Additionally, AI-driven energy management systems are helping commercial buildings optimize their HVAC usage, resulting in significant cost savings and reduced environmental impact[3]. Companies implementing AI are already seeing significant benefits. AI tools can analyze home patterns, generate system designs, and complete rebate paperwork quickly and accurately, freeing up time for HVAC professionals to focus on more critical tasks. Improved sales conversion rates and customer engagement are among the notable outcomes. For instance, AI can automate emails, calls, and even paperwork, saving both time and money for businesses[1][3]. AI-powered tools like predictive maintenance can identify potential system failures before they occur, reducing downtime and costly repairs. This proactive approach not only improves efficiency but also extends the lifespan of HVAC systems. Moreover, AI-driven analytics can provide insights into energy usage patterns, helping businesses and homeowners optimize their energy consumption and reduce costs[1][3]. ### Applications for Contractors For contractors, AI presents an opportunity to streamline operations and improve service delivery. By leveraging AI tools, contractors can: - **Reduce Administrative Tasks**: AI can handle repetitive tasks such as scheduling appointments, generating quotes, and following up with customers, freeing up time for more critical activities. - **Enhance Customer Interactions**: AI-driven insights can help personalize customer interactions, improving satisfaction and loyalty. - **Increase Overall Productivity**: By automating routine tasks, AI allows contractors to focus on strategic initiatives and high-value tasks[1][3]. - **Predict Service Needs**: AI can analyze data to predict when maintenance or repairs are needed, reducing downtime and improving customer satisfaction[1][3]. Furthermore, AI can assist contractors in providing more accurate and competitive quotes, enhancing their ability to win new business. By integrating AI into their operations, contractors can differentiate themselves from competitors and offer a higher level of service. Training staff to use these advanced tools is crucial for maximizing their benefits and ensuring a seamless implementation[1][3]. Adopting AI can also provide contractors with valuable insights into customer preferences and behaviors, allowing them to tailor their services and marketing efforts more effectively. This data-driven approach can lead to higher customer satisfaction and loyalty, as well as increased sales. By staying ahead of technological advancements, contractors can continuously improve their service offerings and maintain a competitive edge in the market. ### Future Outlook The adoption of AI in the HVAC industry is still in its early stages, but its potential is enormous. As AI technology continues to evolve, it will become an integral part of HVAC operations, driving innovation and efficiency. Contractors who embrace AI now will be well-positioned to lead the industry in the future[3]. AI is expected to continue evolving, offering even more sophisticated solutions for the HVAC industry. Future advancements may include AI-driven diagnostic tools that can remotely monitor systems and provide real-time updates to contractors. Embracing these innovations will be key for HVAC businesses to stay competitive and meet the growing demands of their customers[3]. ### Conclusion The rise of AI presents a tremendous opportunity for the HVAC industry. Businesses that leverage AI will gain a competitive edge, streamline operations, and deliver superior customer experiences. For contractors, AI is not just a tool but a transformative force that can revolutionize the way they work[1][3]. ### References - [PwC - Artificial intelligence study](https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/data-and-analytics/publications/artificial-intelligence-study.html) - [Salesforce - State of the Connected Customer Report](https://www.salesforce.com/news/stories/state-of-the-connected-customer-report-outlines-changing-standards-for-customer-engagement/) - [IBM - The AI Ladder](https://www.ibm.com/downloads/cas/GVAGA3JP) --- ## Navigating Increased Competition for M&A and High Interest Rates in the HVAC Industry **Date:** 2024-09-06 [blog-post] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/navigating-increased-competition-for-m-a-and-high-interest-rates-in-the-hvac-industry **Summary:** The HVAC industry is facing increased competition for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and high interest rates, creating both challenges and opportunities for growth. To navigate these dynamics, HVAC contractors and companies must focus on operational efficiency, strategic planning, and leveraging technology to maintain their competitive edge. ### Introduction The HVAC industry is experiencing a significant shift in market dynamics, driven by increased competition for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and high interest rates. These changes present both challenges and opportunities for businesses looking to grow and maintain their competitive edge. Understanding these trends is essential for HVAC contractors and companies to navigate this evolving landscape effectively[3]. ### The Impact of Increased Competition for M&A Over the past five years, EBITDA multiples in the HVAC industry have increased from 2.5 to 4.5, reflecting the heightened competition for M&A deals. This rise in multiples indicates that acquiring businesses has become more expensive, making it crucial for companies to be strategic in their growth plans[3]. The surge in private equity deals with HVAC installers underscores the intense competition in the market - **Increased Cost of Acquisitions**: With higher EBITDA multiples, the cost of acquiring businesses has risen significantly, putting pressure on companies to justify these investments through improved performance and efficiencies. - **Rise of Consolidation**: The industry is seeing a trend towards consolidation, with many smaller companies being acquired by larger entities. This consolidation can lead to economies of scale but also increases competition among remaining players. ### The Challenge of High Interest Rates High interest rates, driven by recent Federal Reserve hikes to the highest levels in 22 years, are adding another layer of complexity to the HVAC market. The increased cost of borrowing impacts companies' ability to finance acquisitions and invest in growth initiatives[3]. - **Higher Borrowing Costs**: The increased interest rates make loans and financing more expensive, which can deter companies from taking on debt for expansion or acquisition purposes. - **Pressure on Profit Margins**: The higher costs associated with borrowing can squeeze profit margins, making it essential for businesses to find ways to operate more efficiently and reduce costs where possible. ### Future Outlook The HVAC industry is poised for continued competition and challenges due to high interest rates and the evolving M&A landscape. By focusing on operational efficiency and organic growth, contractors and companies can navigate these challenges and emerge stronger. Emphasizing customer satisfaction, leveraging technology, and staying agile will be crucial for success[3]. ### Conclusion Increased competition for M&A and high interest rates are reshaping the HVAC industry. By understanding these trends and implementing strategic changes, businesses can navigate this challenging landscape and find opportunities for growth. For HVAC contractors, this is a time to innovate, improve, and prepare for a competitive future. ### References - [HVAC.com - 2023 HVAC Regulations](https://www.hvac.com/expert-advice/2023-hvac-regulations/) - Consulting Report by EY-Parthenon - [ACHR News - Private Equity Firms Continue to Acquire HVAC Firms at Rapid Clip](https://www.achrnews.com/articles/146517-private-equity-firms-continue-to-acquire-hvac-firms-at-rapid-clip) --- ## HVAC Tax Credits: Your Marketing Goldmine for 2025 **Date:** 2025-05-29 [blog-post] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/hvac-tax-credits-your-marketing-goldmine-for-2025 **Summary:** How tax credits can benefit your marketing efforts as an HVAC contractor Hey HVAC marketing pros! Ready to turn government tax credits into your secret weapon for generating qualified leads? With federal tax credits offering up to $2,000 for energy-efficient heat pumps through 2032, you've got a powerful hook that can make your phones ring. Let's dive into how to leverage these incentives to drive sales and create marketing campaigns that actually convert. ### The Current Tax Credit Landscape (Your Sales Ammunition) **Federal Tax Credits for 2025:** - Heat Pumps: 30% of cost up to $2,000 maximum per year until 2032 as part of the Inflation Reduction Act. Though this may change as a result of policy shifts. - Central Air Conditioners: Up to $600 (30% of cost, capped at $600) - High-efficiency systems that meet Consortium for Energy Efficiency (CEE) standards qualify for up to $600 per item ## Marketing Strategies That Convert ### 1. Lead Magnets That Work Create downloadable "Tax Credit Calculators" for your website. When prospects enter their current system details, they see potential savings instantly. This captures leads while educating customers about available incentives. An example one can be found on the Energy Star website through this link **Example Landing Page Copy:** "See How Much You Could Save with a New Heat Pump + Tax Credits" - Enter your zip code and current system - Get instant savings estimate - Download your personalized tax credit guide ### 2. Seasonal Campaign Timing - **January-March**: "Maximize Your Tax Refund" campaigns - **April-June**: "Beat the Summer Rush" with tax credit savings - **September-November**: "Install Before Year-End" to claim current year credits ### 3. Targeted Messaging by Customer Segment **For Budget-Conscious Homeowners:** "New Heat Pump for $6,000? With the $2,000 tax credit, you're really paying $4,000 – and saving $300+ yearly on energy bills." **For Early Adopters:** "Be among the first to claim 2025's enhanced tax credits while helping the environment and cutting your energy costs." **For Procrastinators:** "Don't miss out – these tax credits are available through 2032, but the best equipment sells out fast during peak season." ## Tools to Supercharge Your Marketing ### Customer-Facing Tools & Marketing Assets: - **Tax Credit Calculators**: Use tools like Rewiring America's savings calculator that can show consumers how much they can potential save by switching to electric appliances **homes.rewiringamerica.org/calculator**. It would be great to include testimonials from customers or examples of energy bills before and after such a switch. - **Savings Visualizers**: Show monthly payment vs. energy savings with tax credits factored in - **Qualification Checkers**: Simple forms that tell customers if their home qualifies - **Knowledge Resources:** Links to resources about federal tax credits so customers are informed on how to claim the credits **www.energystar.gov/about/federal-tax-credits** or even step-by-step tax credit claiming guides ### State-by-State Resources (Your Regional Advantage) Don't stop at federal credits! Many states offer additional incentives that can stack with federal credits. Direct your customers to the **Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency (DSIRE)** at **dsireusa.org** for comprehensive state-by-state information. If you want to be even better, try to incorporate state incentives into your marketing alongside the federal ones. **Marketing Tip**: Create location-specific landing pages highlighting combined federal + state savings for your service areas. ### Data-Driven Lead Generation Strategies Characteristics to look for when building an audience for campaigns specific to tax credits and examples of marketing messages. Arch's platform is a great way to source qualified leads. Schedule a demo with us at **getarch.com** - Target homeowners with systems 10+ years old - Use "Tax Credit" and "Rebate" in headlines - Create urgency around seasonal deadlines **Winning Ad Copy Example:** "$2,000 Heat Pump Tax Credit + $1,200 State Rebate = $3,200 Off Your New System! Free Quote in 24 Hours." ### Making It Actionable for Your Sales Team **Train Your Team About the Benefits to Leads:** - "With the tax credit, this system essentially pays for itself in 6 years instead of 10" - "Let me show you what forms you'll need for your tax preparer" **Follow-Up Strategy:** - Send tax credit claiming guides after installation - Follow up in January to remind customers about filing - Ask for referrals from satisfied tax credit customers ### The Bottom Line Tax credits aren't just a nice bonus for customers – they're a powerful marketing tool that can differentiate your business, increase deal sizes, and provide compelling reasons for prospects to choose you over competitors. Start incorporating these strategies now, and watch your qualified lead flow increase throughout 2025. Ready to turn government incentives into your competitive advantage? Your customers want to save money, and you can show them exactly how to do it while upgrading their comfort and efficiency. That's a win-win worth marketing! --- ## Navigating the HVAC Industry Slowdown **Date:** 2024-08-23 [blog-post] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/navigating-the-hvac-industry-slowdown **Summary:** The HVAC industry is experiencing a slowdown due to post-COVID normalization and new regulatory changes, creating challenges for maintaining growth. HVAC businesses need to focus on improving operational efficiency, exploring new growth avenues, and leveraging technology to navigate this period and find opportunities for success. ### Introduction The HVAC industry is facing a slowdown due to several factors, including post-COVID normalization and regulatory changes. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for businesses to navigate the challenges and find opportunities for growth. For HVAC contractors, this period of adjustment offers a chance to refine their strategies and optimize operations[3]. ### Factors Behind the Slowdown The slowdown is primarily driven by a decrease in replacement demand post-COVID and new SEER regulations increasing the minimum efficiency standards for HVAC systems. These changes are creating a challenging environment for maintaining top-line growth. Additionally, the HVAC market is experiencing increased competition and economic pressures, further complicating the landscape[3]. The HVAC market is also seeing a normalization in replacement rates following an uptick during and immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the recent SEER regulation changes, which raised the minimum efficiency standards for HVAC systems, have added to the industry's challenges[3]. The industry's reaction to these changes will take time, affecting the short-term growth prospects. ### Strategies to Overcome Challenges To thrive in this environment, HVAC businesses need to focus on improving operational efficiency and exploring new growth avenues. This includes investing in employee training, adopting advanced technologies, and enhancing customer service. By streamlining processes and reducing waste, businesses can improve their bottom line and weather the slowdown[3]. Implementing energy-efficient technologies and offering maintenance packages can also help retain customers and generate steady revenue streams. Furthermore, leveraging data analytics to understand customer behavior and preferences can guide targeted marketing efforts and improve service offerings[1]. Expanding growth opportunities by focusing on core business elements, such as customer service and community trust, can also help businesses stay resilient during tough times[3]. ### Applications for Contractors For contractors, navigating the slowdown means optimizing operations and finding new ways to add value to their services. This could involve: - **Expanding Service Offerings**: Consider adding new services such as energy audits or smart home integrations to attract more customers. - **Investing in Marketing**: Use targeted marketing strategies to reach potential customers and retain existing ones. - **Leveraging Technology**: Adopt advanced technologies like AI and IoT to improve efficiency and service delivery. - **Building Strong Customer Relationships**: Focus on providing exceptional service to differentiate from competitors. - **Connecting Virtually with Homeowners**: Offer virtual consultations to engage with customers before a site visit, enabling immediate connection with a customer, establishing trust early in the service process and creating the opportunity to expand your geographical reach. Expanding on new ways to connect with homeowners is essential. Virtual consultations can be a game-changer, allowing contractors to assess issues, provide estimates, and discuss solutions remotely. This not only saves time but also enhances customer satisfaction by offering flexibility and convenience. ### Future Outlook Despite the challenges, there are opportunities for growth in the HVAC industry. By staying agile and adapting to market changes, contractors can find new ways to succeed. Emphasizing sustainability, leveraging AI, and focusing on customer satisfaction will be key strategies for thriving in a slow market[3]. ### Conclusion While the HVAC industry is facing a slowdown, there are still opportunities for growth. By understanding the market dynamics and implementing strategic changes, businesses can navigate these challenges and emerge stronger. For contractors, this is a time to innovate, improve, and prepare for future success. ### References - [HVAC.com - 2023 HVAC Regulations](https://www.hvac.com/expert-advice/2023-hvac-regulations/) - Consulting Report by EY-Parthenon - [ACHR News - Private Equity Firms Continue to Acquire HVAC Firms at Rapid Clip](https://www.achrnews.com/articles/146517-private-equity-firms-continue-to-acquire-hvac-firms-at-rapid-clip) --- ## Shoulder-Season Re-Engagement: Max Out the Customers Already in ServiceTitan **Date:** 2025-05-09 [blog-post] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/shoulder-season-re-engagement-max-out-the-customers-already-in-servicetitan **Summary:** How to make the most of this shoulder season by engaging with your current customers. Our data insights tools can help you find the best current customers to re-engage ## **Shoulder-Season Re-Engagement: Max Out the Customers Already in ServiceTitan** *A quick, 3-minute read for HVAC owners & marketers* ### **Why Bother With the "Quiet" Months?** Booking shoulder-season maintenance or replacements smooths revenue and keeps techs busy; the bigger win is that customers you reach **before** a breakdown and you prevent price-shopping so customers turn to you by default when their unit finally fails. Your cheapest, highest-value prospects are the addresses, phones numbers, and emails already stored in your ServiceTitan—just filter for the right ones and make them an offer they can't refuse. ### **Pinpointing the Highest-Value Past Customers** The sweet spot is **customers whose systems are aging and show no permit history of a replacement within the last few years**. Add two more filters and the list quality gets even better: - **Old equipment filter** – 10+ years since last install date or first job on record. - **No recent HVAC permit filter** – suggests the original system is still in place. - **Top-quartile LTV or conversion history filter** – these homeowners buy when you call. Start by pulling your list directly from ServiceTitan—focus on customers with systems 10+ years old and no recent replacement jobs. That alone gives you a solid base for re-engagement. For more advanced marketers looking to go deeper, tools like Arch AI can help by layering in dynamic signals like age of home, permit history, recent home sales, and AI-scored lifetime value—insights that aren't available in ServiceTitan, but help you prioritize the highest-opportunity homes. ### **The 3-Week, Multi-Touch Play (Direct Mail First)** **Week 1 – Direct Mail Postcard** Send a glossy, fridge-worthy postcard to your "old-system + no-permit" lead list. **Headline example:** *"Avoid Summer Breakdowns—$79 Spring Tune-Up for Loyal Customers"* Include a QR code to schedule an appointment and a call-only promo code (e.g., *SPRING79*). **Week 1.5 – Follow-Up Call** Two to three business days after the postcard lands, CSRs call: "Hi [Name], did you get the postcard about our $79 tune-up? Your system's about 12 years old; we'd love to lock in a quick check before heat hits. Tuesday or Thursday work better?" **Week 2 – Email + SMS** - **Email:** *Subject:* "Last Tune-Up Slots Before Summer." Recap the postcard offer, link to book, remind of the promo code. - **SMS:** "🏡❄️ [Co]: $79 tune-up ends Friday. Reply YES for a slot. STOP to opt out." **Week 3 – Final Call or Email** Circle back to anyone unbooked: "We're closing our preseason schedule Friday—want the last open slot?" Drop anyone who declines into a light-touch nurture list for fall. **Bottom line:** Your next 30 days of shoulder-season revenue are already sitting in ServiceTitan. Filter for aging systems with no recent permits, mail an offer that they can't ignore, and call while the postcard is still on the fridge. With a little data and a tool like Arch to surface the signals, you can turn quiet months into a predictable pipeline, no new leads required. --- ## Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum—How They're Raising HVAC Costs and How Data Can Help **Date:** 2025-05-01 [blog-post] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/tariffs-on-steel-and-aluminum--how-theyre-raising-hvac-costs-and-how-data-can-help **Summary:** Analysis on the impact of tariffs on US HVAC contractors and how data science tools can help In 2018, the U.S. government introduced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to boost American industries. While the goal was to protect local jobs, these tariffs have made life tougher for the HVAC sector. Steel and aluminum are essential for building HVAC systems—used in everything from ductwork to compressors. When the price of these metals goes up, so does the cost of heating and cooling equipment. Fortunately, data science offers solutions to soften the blow. ### Why Tariffs Hurt HVAC The tariffs slapped a 25% tax on steel and a 10% tax on aluminum from certain countries. Since then, metal prices have soared. Steel costs have climbed by about 30% from 2018 to 2023, and aluminum prices have risen by 20%. For HVAC manufacturers, this means higher production costs. A residential HVAC system that cost $3,500 in 2017 might now run you $4,200—a jump driven largely by these tariffs. Homeowners, contractors, and businesses all feel the pinch. ### How Data Science & Arch Help Fight Back Against Rising Costs Data science tools can help HVAC companies manage these rising costs in practical ways: - **Predicting Price Changes**: By analyzing past trends and tariff updates, data tools can forecast future metal prices. This lets businesses buy materials at the right time to avoid price spikes. - **Smarter Sourcing**: Data can reveal the cheapest, most reliable suppliers—even under tariff rules. It might suggest shifting to a domestic source or a tariff-free country. - **Pricing Made Simple**: Real-time data helps companies adjust their prices to cover costs without scaring off customers. - **Specifically for Arch:** HVAC contractors will need to find ways to increase ROI of their business in the face of rising costs. Given that marketing is a big spend category, making use of data to drive better conversion and lead sourcing is a great way to manage rising HVAC equipment costs. ### Why This Matters Tariffs have made HVAC systems more expensive, but data science gives businesses a way to adapt. With the right insights, they can plan ahead, cut costs, and keep projects affordable. --- ## The climate founders' guide to the Inflation Reduction Act **Date:** 2022-12-09 [in-the-news] **URL:** https://getarch.com/blog/the-climate-founders-guide-to-the-inflation-reduction-act --- ## Featured Case Study: Pacific Heating & Cooling **URL:** https://getarch.com/case-study Pacific Heating & Cooling generated approximately $138,000 in revenue over 36 days using Arch's AI-powered direct mail platform. **Key Results:** - ~11x ROI on marketing investment - ~$138,000 in attributed revenue - 36 days from campaign launch to results - ~$12,000 total campaign investment --- *Arch is an AI-powered revenue platform for home services contractors. Learn more at https://getarch.com*