Pacific Heating & Cooling: 11x ROI in 36 Days
How Pacific HVAC generated ~$138,000 revenue from a ~$12,000 direct mail investment in 36 days using AI-powered audience targeting.
Pacific Heating & Cooling faced a challenge familiar to many HVAC contractors: a limited marketing budget and pressure to demonstrate measurable results. While Google Ads provided steady leads, Marketing Director Katherine Lundin questioned whether passive, intent-based marketing captured all available opportunity.
The team partnered with Arch to run a controlled test using AI-powered audience selection and a holdout group to measure true incrementality.
The Challenge
Three key questions drove the experiment:
- Proactive vs. Passive: Does proactive outreach drive incremental action, or do customers only respond when actively searching?
- Budget Optimization: How to maximize return on investment when budget constraints require selective targeting?
- Attribution Clarity: Can attribution be proven beyond last-touch metrics that may over-credit passive channels?
The Solution
Step 1: Audience Selection
Arch's AI analyzed Pacific's entire service territory:
- Total addressable market: 93,609 single family homes
- AI-generated customer profile identified 40,000-50,000 matching homes
- Proprietary AI scoring narrowed to 30,000 highest-propensity targets
- 25,000 selected for direct mail campaign
- 5,000 randomly sampled as holdout group (no outreach)
Step 2: Campaign Execution
The platform handled all campaign execution: design, printing, shipping, and delivery. Campaign details:
- Format: Direct mail postcard
- Offer: $179 HVAC tune-up
- Investment: $12,188 for 24,834 pieces
- Launch Date: September 4, 2025
Step 3: Attribution Tracking
Multiple attribution methods provided comprehensive visibility:
- Direct attribution via campaign phone number and QR code scans
- Matchback attribution using address-based tracking
- Time-to-action measurement from delivery date
- Complete journey tracking from appointment through close
Results
36-day performance comparison between matched audiences:
| Metric | Holdout | Campaign |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$3K | ~$138K |
| Jobs Sold | 2 | 15 |
| Avg Ticket | $1.5K | $9.2K |
Key Findings
1. Targeting Precision
AI scoring identified prospects with high purchase intent, not just demographic fit. The campaign group closed 15 jobs while the matched holdout group closed only 2. More significantly, the average ticket size was more than 6x larger ($9,200 vs $1,500), indicating the campaign reached customers ready for larger system investments.
2. Incrementality Proof
The holdout group, identical in quality but receiving no outreach, generated only ~$3,000 from 2 jobs. The campaign group delivered ~$138,000 from 15 jobs. This 46x difference demonstrates the campaign created substantial incremental revenue rather than capturing existing demand.
3. End-to-End Execution
The platform handled the entire campaign lifecycle: audience selection, creative design, printing, shipping, tracking, and attribution. This eliminated operational complexity and enabled precise measurement.
The Bottom Line
Pacific Heating & Cooling achieved approximately 11x ROI on their direct mail investment, with 6x higher average ticket sizes compared to their holdout group.
"Google Ads worked until it didn't. Every additional dollar produced diminishing returns. Arch's Proprietary AI Score analyzed 93,609 homes to identify propensity signals that precede search behavior. We reached qualified prospects outside the Google ecosystem at a fraction of the cost, and the platform's end-to-end execution made tracking seamless and precise."
— Katherine Lundin, Marketing Director, Pacific Heating & Cooling